India to house up to 17% of the world’s elderly population by 2050: Report

April 18, 2024: The world’s elderly population is surging, with India expected to be the fastest-growing, housing up to 17% of the world’s elderly population by 2050, according to a report by CBRE South Asia titled ‘Golden opportunities from the silver economy – analysing the future of senior care in India’. In India, the segment is witnessing substantial growth, driven by favourable demographics, rising chronic conditions and increasing awareness. With the rising number of seniors seeking specialised care and lifestyle options, the demand for senior living facilities has surged significantly in recent years.

On a pan-India basis, the senior care landscape is rapidly evolving, with 18,000 units spread throughout the nation. The southern region distinctly leads by contributing about 62% to the overall supply in organised senior living and care segments. This promising trend is driven by several factors, including higher affordability levels and a growing acceptance of nuclear family structures, as evidenced by a higher proportion of elderly living alone compared to the northern states. Additionally, the southern states boast prominent healthcare facilities, facilitating access to tertiary healthcare and fostering awareness of geriatric care services. Also, the availability of trained staff, given the region’s focus on the healthcare sector, further enhances the quality of senior care. Major players in the senior care segment are concentrated in southern Tier-1 and 2 cities such as Chennai, Coimbatore and Bangalore. Future expansion of the senior care units by major players is concentrated in the cities of Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Coimbatore, Pune and NCR.

The prominent zones other than south India include the north zone- comprising Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, and Himachal Pradesh, which holds 25% of the market share of senior living and care units. Followed by the central zone, which includes Maharashtra, Gujarat, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh and accounts for 13% of the senior living units. The distribution is sparse in northern and western regions, including cities such as Delhi-NCR, Pune, and Jaipur, with a limited presence of senior care players.

The total estimated target for senior living facilities in 2024 is around 1 million, projected to increase to 2.5 million in the next 10 years. Currently, there are approximately 150 million elderly individuals in India, a number expected to rise to 230 million over the next 10-12 years.

The target population for senior living focuses on individuals aged 60 and above. India’s current penetration rate for senior living stands at less than 1%, a stark contrast to countries like the UK, with an 11% penetration rate, the US, with over 6%, and Australia, with approximately 6.7%. This highlights India’s nascent stage in the senior living market, signalling significant room for growth compared to more mature markets where senior living is already well-established and growing steadily. The elderly care market has been establishing increasingly in India in recent years, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Further, there has been significant growth in the senior living segment because of several factors:

•     India’s senior population is growing faster than the overall population
•     Rise in nuclear families with 20% of the elderly population living alone or only with one spouse.
•     There is a significant rise expected in the old-age dependency ratio – to rise from 16% in 2020 to 34% by 2050.
•     Almost 70% of senior citizens in India have a chronic illness, mainly CVDs, diabetes, vision-related ailments and hypertension.
•     Healthcare groups are also venturing into the segment through partnership with developers and are playing an active role in the assisted living segment.
•     For enhanced geriatric care in India, several policy initiatives such as NPHCE, National Health Policy and community-based programmes are undertaken by the Govt.

Anshuman Magazine, chairman and CEO – India, South-East Asia, Middle East and Africa, CBRE, said, “India’s senior population is expected to experience a remarkable 254% growth, making it the fastest-growing demographic segment globally. By 2050, India is projected to house up to 340 million seniors, constituting approximately 17% of the world’s elderly population. India has experienced a significant surge in the number of senior living projects over the past decade, reflecting the growing acceptance and demand in this sector. Developers in the segment are expressing optimism about the future of the senior living segment, highlighting the increasing demand for specialised care and lifestyle options among seniors. They recognise the market’s potential for sustained expansion and innovation, which is evident through their expansion plans, with a focus on increasing their presence in urban centres and tapping into high-income group households. The outlook for the segment is positive, with continued expansion expected in urban centres and Tier-2 cities. Developers are looking to capitalise on the growing demand by investing in new projects, enhancing infrastructure, and forging strategic partnerships to deliver comprehensive senior living solutions”.

Rami Kaushal, managing director, consulting and valuation services, India, Middle East and Africa, CBRE, said, “The southern region has solidified its position as the preeminent area for senior living projects. This surge underscores the region’s pivotal role in the expansion and progression of the senior living sector. It mirrors the escalating demand for both independent and assisted living services, highlighting these urban centres as hotspots for opportunity and growth within the industry. As acceptance levels rise and affordability improves, the senior living segment is poised for sustained growth and innovation in the years to come. Industry leaders emphasise the booming potential of the senior care sector in India, recognizing the need for structured care programs, targeted policies and specialised medical services to meet the evolving preferences of the ageing population”.

The senior living segment encompasses a wide range of housing options and services tailored for older adults aged 60 and above, fostering independence, social engagement and convenience. Categorised into various types, including independent living communities, assisted living facilities, memory care units and continuing care retirement communities, these offerings cater to evolving needs.

•     Independent living caters to an active, independent and productive phase of life, typically suitable for seniors with minor medical issues who value their freedom and have plans for a fulfilling retirement.

•     Assisted living, on the other hand, is designed for those requiring additional support due to age or disability, including specialised care for conditions such as dementia or Alzheimer’s disease.

•   Lastly, continuous care is available for those who need comprehensive nursing care and medical attention, offering services that range from memory care for dementia patients to hospitalisation and even palliative or end-of-life care, ensuring that each individual’s needs are compassionately met at every stage.